In the realm of curious numerical claims, there is one that has likely crossed the ears of many: the notion that the living population of Earth currently surpasses the total of all those who have ever walked this planet and subsequently departed. At first glance, such an idea seems plausible, particularly when considering the rapid growth of the global human population over the past two centuries. From a mere 1.6 billion inhabitants in 1900, our numbers have catapulted to just over 8 billion. It would seem reasonable to assume that the living may have momentarily outnumbered the deceased at some fleeting point in this century.

However, as one delves deeper into the available data and estimates, a different narrative emerges and debunks this intriguing claim.

The story begins with the remarkable surge in the global human population over the past two centuries, driven by the transformative forces of industrialization and advancements in agriculture. This population explosion might understandably lead one to speculate that there was a brief period when the living indeed surpassed the cumulative count of those who had passed away.

However, this assumption must be revised according to the data and estimates.

The turning point in the reliability of population data occurred around the year 1800. This marked a significant era when written records, censuses, and the collection of taxes became more common practices in various countries. Before this pivotal juncture, which began approximately 60,000 years after the first modern humans departed Africa, humanity was primarily immersed in a world of estimates and conjecture.

Consider the formidable challenges of estimating populations in ancient times. For instance, during the Iron Age in France, from 800 B.C.E. to about 100 C.E., the average life expectancy was 10 to 12 years. Under such formidable conditions, a birth rate of approximately 80 live births per 1,000 individuals would have been necessary for the species to endure. To provide context, today’s high birth rates range from 35 to 45 live births per 1,000 population and are observed in only select sub-Saharan African countries.

To arrive at an estimate, the Population Reference Bureau (P.R.B.) devised a methodology that drew from population data across various historical periods and prehistory. They assumed a decreasing birth rate over time to mirror the declining trend. While this approach provided a rough approximation of birth numbers (and consequently, death numbers), it is essential to acknowledge that accuracy would have greatly benefited from more rigorous record-keeping practices in ancient societies.

According to the P.R.B.’s calculations, a staggering 117 billion births have occurred since 190,000 BCE, far surpassing the 8 billion individuals currently alive. In essence, living people outnumbering the dead finds no support in the available data and historical estimates. It stands as a testament to the resilience of the human spirit and our collective journey through the annals of time.

In closing, this exploration prompts reflection on how our comprehension of past population dynamics has evolved and how data continually shapes our perception of the world’s demographic history.

Cite Works:

Piecuch, Jim, ed. Seven Myths of the American Revolution. Hackett Publishing, 2023.

Piecuch, Jim, ed. Seven Myths of the American Revolution. Hackett Publishing, 2023.

How Many People Have Lived On Earth So Far? https://www.iflscience.com/how-many-people-have-lived-on-earth-so-far-70637?fbclid=IwAR1TeRVrgI0bWllU-41LPr9IMB6DDhe3e5heZlTCraBmNRC2NQ7d-BWf5_E